Waking up to a new week of geopolitical stress, fake news (Blackrock spot ETF), higher yields, softer dollar, equities rally, I thought to myself: As far as the market goes, it feels like time is standing still.
Why would I think that? After all, it may not last and certainly we have opposing forces. Seasonally, Q4 should be strong. Bank earnings were solid with many more earnings on tap. Inflation remains sticky. Nobody knows if the Hamas-Israel war will escalate, lateralize, or resolve.
Buyers defended the major moving averages in small caps and retail sectors. Our risk gauges are more neutral, not bearish or bullish. Thus there is no better time to go and review our Economic Modern Family on a weekly timeframe to help us assess if time has stopped, for how long and what is next.
Top left, Granny Retail (XRT), since the rally in late July, has not done much. It’s above 57, but below the major weekly moving averages; we could say the range to watch is 57-65 to alter time in perpetuity.
Next is Gramps Russell 2000, Small Caps (IWM). Holding 170, IWM is stuck between major support and overhead resistance at 180. Even a move over 175 would be a good start to get things moving. And, clearly, a move under 170 would not be so healthy for time or investors.
Biotech (IBB) has been stuck in time for the last 4 weeks. 120-125 is the best range to watch.
Sister Semiconductors (SMH) is in a bull phase, is nonetheless stuck between 140-157. As a typical leader of the market, we’re watching her carefully.
Transportation (IYT) had a great rally from June until late August. But since then, it’s sat at April, May, June lows, and now again at those same lows since late September. 220-235 a good range to watch.
Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) may need to be banished from the Family. Since March, the direction of regional banks is questionable, while big banks have the staying power. Nonetheless, KRE, except for a couple of rallies and sell offs, sits between 40-45.
Bitcoin, a new member of the Family, was featured over the weekend in our Daily. Now, a close over 28,000 could begin a decoupling of both the family and time standing still.
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Mish in the Media
Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix’s pre-market show.
In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September’s Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee’s policies.
Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.
Mish discusses what’s needed for a market bottom on the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava.
Mish takes over as guest host for David Keller, CMT on the Monday, October 9 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her thoughts in the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news.
To quote Al Mendez, “The smartest woman in Business Analysis @marketminute [Mish] impresses Charles with her “deep dive” to interpret the present Market direction.” See Mish’s appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne here!
Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.
In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she’s watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.
Mish was interviewed by Kitco News for the article “This Could Be the Last Gasp of the Bond Market Selloff, Which Will be Bullish for Gold Prices”, available to read here.
Mish presents a warning in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg’s Opening Bell — before loading up seasonality trades or growth stocks, watch the “inside” sectors of the US economy.
Watch Mish and Nicole Petallides discuss how pros and cons working in tandem, plus why commodities are still a thing, in this video from Schwab.
Coming Up:
October 19: Live Coaching
October 20: StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five
October 23: BNN Bloomberg
October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business
October 29-31: The Money Show
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY): 440 resistance, 429 support.
Russell 2000 (IWM): 177 resistance, 170 KEY support.
Dow (DIA): 344 resistance, 332 support.
Nasdaq (QQQ): 368 pivotal.
Regional Banks (KRE): 39.80 -42.00 range.
Semiconductors (SMH): 150 pivotal.
Transportation (IYT): 237 resistance, 225 support.
Biotechnology (IBB): 120-125 range.
Retail (XRT): 57 key support if can climb over 61, better.
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education